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May 18, 2018

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PAGE 4A HERITAGE FLORIDA JEWISH NEWS, MAY 18, 2018 By Ben Cardin America is not good for its word and cannot be These are not mutually exclusive actions. trusted. It is in fact America who has violated Last year, Congress passed into law a num- WASHINGTON (JTA)--President Trump's its obligations under the deal. ber of sanctions and other tools President decision towithdrawthe United States from the That is a deeply unfortunate and frankly Trump could use to hold accountable three of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, knownas dangerously embarrassing prospect, because America's principle adversaries: Russia, North the Iran nuclear deal, is bad policyand calls into Iran is one of the most nefarious actors on Korea and Iran. I was proud to co-author and question America's international credibility, the world stage, playing a destabilizing role negotiate that legislation through to final Mr. Trump has now set the international across the Middle East and proudly carrying passage. community on a slippery slope, imperiling the the mantle of the greatest nation-state threat President Trump has not used the full power national security interests of the United States to Israel today, of his office, or the additional tools Congress and our allies, particularly Israel. TheAyatollah and the hard-liners in Tehran granted him, to strengthen our hand and lead I voted against the Iran nuclear deal three have propped up Bashar al-Assad's murderous the international community against Iran. years ago because I felt it left certain long-term rampage against the Syrian people and pro- It did not have to end up this way. questions about Iran's enrichment capabilities pelled the collapse of that country's economy In 2015, as President Obama was nearing unanswered. Since it was entered into how- and infrastructure--direct, physical threats conclusionoftheJCPOAnegotiations, Iworked ever, I have worked to ensure there is rigorous to Israel. Tehran has fueled the civil war in Ye- with Senator Bob Corker in our capacities as enforcement and oversight of the deal. Three men and exacerbated the gross humanitarian the leaders of the Senate Foreign Relations years in, Iran is complying with its end of the crisis borne out of that conflict. And day by Committee to write the Iran Nuclear Agree- nuclear bargain, according to international day, Iranseeksandseeminglyachievesgreater ment Review Act. That bill asserted Congress' observersandAmericanintelligenceofficials, influenceoverthecentralgovernmentinIraq, right to review any agreements reached as But the United States is now breaking the I agree with President Trump's concerns part of the effort to keep Iran from acquir- deal, poised to re-impose sanctions that were about Iran's global posture and its non-nuclear ing a nuclear weapon. INARA passed each lifted on Iran for the promise of ceasing their actions. But we can keep the nuclear deal chamber of Congress with near unanimous nuclear weapons program, working while also going after Tehran for its support and brought greater accountability President Trump has breathed air into Teh- support for terrorism, its human rightsabuses and understanding to the American people ran's inevitable argument to the international against the Iranian people, its ballistic missile about the nuclear deal and why it was in our community: We kept our end of the deal, but testing, and its violation of arms embargoes, interests. Donald Trump then became president and Iranian eaction when soughttomakegoodonhiscampaignpromise r to tear up the deal. For months throughout 2017, I worked with then-White House National confronted with force Security Advisor, GeneralH.R. McMaster, to brainstorm possible changes to INARA that would not violate two of my principles: no changes that would have the U.S. violate its JCPOA obligations, and no changes without European concurrence. By Harold Rhode negotiations, where Obamaand his allies caved in to Iranian demands time after time. (JNS)--While we cannot know the future, As I wrote in an article for the Jerusalem past history gives a good indication of how Center for Public Affairs on the sources of Iranians react when confronted with force. Iranian negotiating behavior: "Compromise Iranians fear confrontation.Theymostoften [as we in the West understand this concept] get others to do their dirty work so that oth- is seen as a sign of submission and weakness. ers would be forced to take the blame. That's For Iranians, it actually brings shame on those why they created Hezbollah, which carried [and on the families of those] who concede." out terrorist acts for which Hezbollah would But when President Trump took office, the be held responsible. An example of this is the Iranians feared the worst. Not long thereafter, 1982 bombing of the American embassy in they stopped harassing American boats in the Lebanon. Americans blamed that organiza- Gulf, and used many indirect actors to try to tion for the destruction of the embassy, but convince Washington that it wanted to get focused U.S. action on Lebanon, instead of alongwithAmerica. ButTrump first chose his going to the source: Iran. original foreign-policy team for the American But when Iranian fears fear they might political establishment. That signaled to the suffer direct retaliation, they usually cower. Iraniansthattheycouldprobablygetawaywith Two example illustrate this: continuing their plan to dominate the Middle 1. After the Iranian Islamic revolution in East.Butwhenhereplacedtheseestablishment 1979, the Iranians took over the U.S. embassy figures with the new Secretary of State Mike indirectviolationofinternationallaw.America Pompeo and National Security Adviser John reacted with words and did not use force. Bolton, the Iranians feared the game was up. When America eventually did try to use force Their senior leaders startedto publicly bicker in the Tabas operation, it failed miserably and with and blame each other, which in Iranian was humiliated.Whenandwhy did the Iranians culture almost always shows fear on their part. release the Americans? They fear they are going down. Ronald Reagan won the U.S. presidential One might therefore think that Iran would election in 1980 and took office on Jan. 20, instruct its proxy Hezbollah to send rockets 1981. Forty-five minutes before he took the to attack Israel. But if the United States and Oath of Office, Iran brought the hostages to Israel make it clear that they would hold Iran the airport in Tehran and flew them out of the directly responsible for Hezbollah's actions, country. The hostages left Iranian airspace at Iran's would most likely hold Hezbollah back. the very moment that Reagan raised his right But it is also likely that Iran would cower/ hand and was sworn in as president, cave to America and Israel. Iran knows that The Iranians saw Reagan as a dangerous it cannot stand up to either. cowboy and feared he would bomb Tehran to Given Netanyahu's proof that Iran has smithereens. True to Iranian culture, they continued to violate the JCPOAagreement-- caved when they feared the worse. America is in agreement that what Netanyahu 2. Under U.S. President Barack Obama, the exposed is true--it seems that we now have Iranians sent small boats to harass America moved beyond the May 12 deadline. military ships in the Persian Gulf. Iran also The Iranian government is quaking in its took an American military vessel hostage and boots. Now is the time to reassure the Iranian publicly humiliated the sailors on board. The people that we stand with them against their Iranians also humiliated Obamaand Secretary brutal rulers, and after their terrorist regime of State John Kerry over and over again dur- is overthrown, that we will gladly welcome ing and after the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) them back into the community of nations. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ON THIS PAGE ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE VIEWS OF HERITAGE MANAGEMENT. ~ CENTRAL FLORIDA'SINDEPENDENTJEWISHVOICE ~ ~ ISSN 0199-0721 Winner of 46 Press Awards Editor/Publisher Jeffrey Gaeser Editor Emeritus Associate Editor News Editor Gene StareKim Fischer Christine DeSouza HERITAGE Florida Jewish News (ISN 0199-0721) is published weekly for $37.95 per year to Florida ad- dresses ( $46.95 for the rest of the U.S. ) by HERITAGE Central Florida Jewish News, Inc 207 O'Brien Road, Suite 101, Fern Park, FL 32730. Periodicals postage paid at Fern Park and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes and other correspondence to: HERITAGE, P.O. Box 300742, Fern Park, FL 32730. MAILING ADDRESS PHONE NUMBER P.O. Box 300742 (407) 834-8787 Fern Park, FL 32730 FAX (407) 831-0507 email: Society Editor Office Manager Gloria Yousha Paulette Alfonso Account Executives Kim Fischer * Marci Gaeser Contributing Columnists Jim Shipley Mel Pearlman David Bornstein * Ed Ziegler Production Department David Lehman * Gil Dombrosky Joyce Gore By Behnam Ben Taleblu WASHINGTON (JTA)--An inflection point in American policy towards Iran came this afternoon, when President Trump announced he will re-impose nuclear sanctions on Iran and effectively withdraw the U.S. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal. Having done so, the administration should anticipate the range of responses available to Iran and plan for how to counteract them. One half of the Iranian response is guar- anteed to be rhetorical, with an emphasis on persuading Europe to resist the U.S. move by taking actions favorable to Tehran. The other half of Iran's response will consist of accelerat- ing its nuclear program in order to show that it will not accept the constraints imposed by a nuclear deal that Washington rejects. At the same time, Iran could carefully calibrate this acceleration, so that it does not undermine its efforts to win the sympathy of pro-deal leaders in Europe. Iran's rhetorical response to the re-imposi- tion of sanctions will have three likely goals: 1) expedite and exploit a growing trans-Atlantic divide over Iran policy, 2) convince Europe not to comply with any prospective U.S. sanctions against Iran and 3) get Europe to shield entities that do business with Iranian parties. Given Europe's fondness of the deal, this will not be a hard sell for Tehran, especially if it employs the dispute resolution mechanism created by the JCPOA to secure a judgment that Washington is engaging in "significant non-performance" of its obligations. The more challenging response from Iran will come on the nuclear front. After initially claiming that Iran would continue adhering to the nuclear deal even if the U.S. withdrew, some of the deal's advocates in Tehran now threaten to exit the accord and even repudi- ate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The NPT threat is pure bluster. Most governments consider the NPT to be the cornerstone of the nuclear nonproliferation regime; withdrawal would therefore lose the Islamic Republic any international support, particularly in Europe. Yet Iran could certainly pull out of the JCPOA, since the deal only froze--but did not dismantle--the bulk of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, which could be reconstituted. The question is: How far will Iran go? Will it shed all of the restraints imposed by the JCPOAand resume its quest for weapons-grade fissile material? Or will it engage in symbolic As the international community stands at the precipice of this cliff now created by President Trump's decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal, I am mindful of two immediate realities. First, when Israel looks north, she sees Iran staring back from its strengthened footholds in Syria and Lebanon. President Trump's deci- sion to walk away from the deal will inevitably embolden Iran and endanger Israel. Second, within the month President Trump is expected to sit down with North Korean dic- tator Kim Jong-un as part of the international effort to denuclearize the Korean peninsula and end the Korean conflict. Our friends and partners will understandably approach this important endeavor more cautiously now given Mr. Trump's decision toviolate U.S. obligations under the Iran nuclear deal. Will the U.S. keep its word this time? At the end of the day, the JCPOA is an execu- tive agreement that the president can leave at any time. But just because he can leave the agreement does not mean he should. Mr. Trump has failed to make a convincing case for U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and in the process, may very well have strengthened Iran. The author is a member of the United States Senate from the state of Maryland, and is a senior member of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of JTA or its par- ent company, 70 Faces Media. acts of protest to challenge the U.S. without antagonizing Europe? Symbolic face-saving measures might in- clude the vacuum testing of new centrifuges, taking more advanced machines out of stor- age, or accumulating more heavy water and low-enriched uranium than the deal allows. Depending on the Western response to such measures, Iran might escalate further. There is also the risk that Iran might covertly resume its nuclear weapons development program at an unknown location. Should the Islamic Republic decide to respond more forcefully, it could resume flight-testing medium-range ballistic missiles, which reportedly last occurred in July 2017. All of Iran's MRBMs meet the internationally defined standard of being "nuclear-capable." They also can reach key U.S. partners in the region such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. Since inking the JCPOA in July 2015, Iran has launched as many as 23 ballistic missiles. But a closer look at that number reveals a significant downturn in MRBM testing over the past year. If Tehran were so inclined, it could resume these tests, which would not only signal defiance against America, but also refine the capabilities and readiness of its nuclear delivery vehicle. Another way to respond forcefully without violating the JCPOA would be to harass U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, just off the coast of Iran. According to data cited by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, there has also been a significant downturn in harassment by the IRGC-Navy in the Persian Gulf since the beginning of 2017. Iranian commanders might want to return to testing America's nerve and military professionalism in these waters if faced with renewed nuclear sanctions. Finally, Iran could also respond via terrorism and assassination, although any such activity on European soil would cause the regime to lose international support. Instead, Tehran might target U.S. troops in Syria, Iraq, or an- other location in the Middle East. While Iran controls a network of Shiite militias across the region, the militias usually (though notalways) respond more to local pressures, rather than global ones. Case in point are the intensifying prospects for war between Iran and Israel in the Syrian theater. While Iran will face clear limitations to its escalation against America in the military Deal on page 15A